Increasing Energy Efficiency in Residential Buildings: System Dynamics Approach

Iran is considered as one of the most energy-consuming countries in the world, and because of the abundant resources in Iran, energy is so cheap. In this study, by focusing on the residential sector as the most consumable sector, and electricity as the most consumable energy in this sector, it has been tried to investigate, and simulate related approved methods in the world, and the results of the implementation of these strategies are simulated and analyzed over the course of twenty years (2016-2036). In this way, system dynamics (SD) methodology is used. SD methodology is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, and the reason for choosing this approach is the proportionality of the inherent properties of energy systems -such as nonlinear variables, time delays, feedback structures, uncertainty, and cause-effect relationships- with the properties and tools of this approach. Different solutions to increase energy efficiency consist of the development of LED lighting products, development of air conditioning systems, development of insulation, as well as cultural issues and modification of consumption patterns are considered, and the efficiency of each solution regarding the capital allocation to each one is investigated. The information and needed data are often extracted from official reports and statistics from the Ministry of Energy and its subsidiaries as well as the Iranian Statistical Organization. When there is little data to define the relationships between two variables, experts' opinions are used. The simulation results over 20 years show that the best way is to allocate 25 percent of capital per year to each solution. 50 percent of the cost for LED products should be paid as a grant, and 100 percent of the cost for air conditioning and insulation system should be paid via an interest-free loan with a two-year repayment. The results of this study can be a guide for electricity policymakers and planners.